Good afternoon, everyone. I’m glad you could join me today for our Bitcoin market outlook. I’ll walk you through the key data points that shape our forecast for the next week, explain the underlying signals, and highlight the risks and opportunities that traders and investors should keep an eye on.

First, let’s look at the headline numbers. As of today, October 21, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at roughly $108,000. Our model projects a most probable price of about $103,000 by October 28, with a 55 % probability. There’s a 30 % chance it could stay below $106,000, and a smaller 15 % chance it might hold near the current level of $108,000. In other words, the market is leaning toward a modest decline, but there is still a non‑trivial chance of a short‑term rebound.

Now, why do we see a bearish tilt? The market is currently in a distribution phase, which historically signals that sellers are gradually taking inventory. Our expected return over the next week is a modest -3.2 %, and we’ve assigned a medium confidence level of 72 %. When we break down the directional probabilities, we see a 55 % chance of a downward move, 35 % that it will trade sideways, and only 10 % that it will move higher. These figures come from a Monte‑Carlo simulation that incorporates a composite signal derived from on‑chain metrics, price action, and macro indicators.

Let me unpack some of those on‑chain signals. Short‑term holders are still under pressure; they’re net selling about 901 BTC, which reduces immediate sell pressure. However, long‑term holders are accumulating, as shown by a positive supply change and a declining unrealized loss. The MVRV‑Z ratio is at 0.76, well below the neutral value of 1.0, suggesting the market is undervalued relative to realized price. Meanwhile, the NUPL metric is deeply negative at -2.5 %, meaning that recent entrants are at a loss and could either capitulate or convert to long‑term positions. Historically, when we see this combination—low MVRV‑Z, negative NUPL, and a distribution phase—it often precedes a downtrend, but the growing long‑term accumulation raises the upside probability over longer horizons.

Turning to technical levels, the key support zone is around $100,000, with secondary supports at $98,500 and $97,000. On the upside, resistance sits at $110,000, $115,000, and $120,000. If the price dips below $100,000, we’d be looking at a more pronounced correction. Conversely, a bounce above $110,000 could signal a reversal of the current distribution trend.

There are several time‑sensitive triggers that could shift the market. In the next week, we’re watching the U.S. CPI data and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, both of which could tighten or loosen monetary policy. In mid‑November, the SEC could announce new ETF structures that might lift demand. Large‑scale movements from known 10,000‑BTC wallets—especially transfers exceeding that threshold—could also signal institutional repositioning. Finally, the end of the calendar year brings tax‑loss harvesting pressure, and early‑2026 we might see a G7 consensus statement on crypto regulation that could alter risk sentiment.

We’ve identified three primary risks that could materially affect the forecast. First, the upcoming macro data releases—particularly inflation and CPI—could either reinforce the bearish bias or provide a catalyst for a rally. Second, any regulatory announcement targeting crypto exchanges could tighten the market. Third, a large‑scale BTC movement from cold wallets could either add liquidity or trigger a sell‑off, depending on the direction.

It’s worth noting that our forecast history shows a strong track record. On October 14, we predicted $111.8 k, and the realized price was $108 k, giving us a 96.6 % accuracy in that instance. That level of precision comes from a rigorous methodology: we extract multi‑time‑frame indicator vectors, smooth them with short‑term moving averages, calculate z‑scores to flag significant trends, and then use cross‑correlation to identify lead‑lag relationships. We cluster highly correlated indicators to avoid double‑counting, map the current configuration to historical windows using Euclidean distance, and weight the composite signal by lead strength, correlation, and volatility. Finally, we run a Monte‑Carlo simulation with 10,000 paths to generate a price distribution for the target horizon.

In conclusion, the data suggest a modest downside probability over the next week, with a 55 % chance of falling to $103,000 by October 28. However, the presence of long‑term accumulation and a low MVRV‑Z ratio keeps the upside probability alive, especially if macro data or regulatory news turns favorable. Traders should monitor the key support levels and be prepared for a potential dip below $100,000, while also staying alert to any of the time‑sensitive triggers that could swing the market in either direction. Thank you for your attention, and I’ll be happy to take any questions.